The Actual History
On June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom held a referendum on its membership in the European Union. By a margin of 51.9% to 48.1%, British voters chose to leave the EU, initiating a process that became known as "Brexit" (British exit). This decision marked the first time a member state had voted to leave the European Union and set in motion a complex, contentious, and protracted withdrawal process that fundamentally altered Britain's relationship with Europe and its position in the world.
The referendum itself was the culmination of decades of complicated relations between the UK and the European project. Britain had initially declined to join the European Economic Community (EEC) when it was formed in 1957, only to apply for membership in 1961 and 1967, with both applications vetoed by French President Charles de Gaulle. The UK finally joined in 1973 under Conservative Prime Minister Edward Heath, but this was followed by a renegotiation of membership terms and a referendum in 1975 under Labour Prime Minister Harold Wilson, in which 67% of voters chose to remain.
Throughout its membership, the UK maintained a somewhat detached relationship with the EU, securing opt-outs from key initiatives like the Schengen Agreement (which eliminated border controls) and the Euro currency. Euroskepticism remained a significant force in British politics, particularly within the Conservative Party, where it contributed to the downfall of multiple prime ministers.
The 2016 referendum was called by Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron, who had promised it in his 2015 election manifesto as a way to resolve internal party divisions and counter the electoral threat from the UK Independence Party (UKIP). Cameron campaigned for "Remain" but allowed his cabinet members to support either side. The "Leave" campaign, led by figures including Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, focused on issues of sovereignty ("Take Back Control"), immigration, and redirecting EU contributions to domestic priorities like the National Health Service. The "Remain" campaign emphasized economic benefits of EU membership and risks of leaving.
The referendum result revealed deep divisions within British society. England (53.4%) and Wales (52.5%) voted to leave, while Scotland (62%) and Northern Ireland (55.8%) voted to remain. Urban areas and those with higher education levels generally supported remaining, while rural and post-industrial areas typically voted to leave.
Following the referendum, Cameron resigned and was replaced by Theresa May, who triggered Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union in March 2017, formally beginning the two-year withdrawal process. May's government negotiated a withdrawal agreement with the EU, but it was repeatedly rejected by the UK Parliament, leading to delays in the Brexit process and eventually to May's resignation in 2019.
Boris Johnson became Prime Minister in July 2019, promising to "Get Brexit Done." After calling a general election in December 2019, which his Conservative Party won with a substantial majority, Johnson secured parliamentary approval for a revised withdrawal agreement. The UK formally left the EU on January 31, 2020, entering a transition period during which it remained in the EU single market and customs union while negotiations continued on a future relationship.
These negotiations culminated in the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement, signed on December 30, 2020, just before the transition period ended on December 31. This agreement provided for zero-tariff, zero-quota trade in goods between the UK and EU but introduced significant non-tariff barriers. It included limited provisions for services, ended free movement of people, and removed the UK from EU programs and institutions, with some exceptions like continued participation in scientific research cooperation.
The implementation of Brexit created numerous challenges. Northern Ireland's unique position required special arrangements (the Northern Ireland Protocol, later revised as the Windsor Framework) to avoid a hard border with the Republic of Ireland while protecting the EU single market. This effectively created a regulatory border in the Irish Sea, causing political tensions in Northern Ireland and between the UK and EU.
Economically, Brexit led to increased trade friction with the EU, Britain's largest trading partner. UK exports to the EU declined, supply chains were disrupted, and businesses faced increased administrative burdens. The financial services sector lost automatic access to EU markets through "passporting" rights. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimated that Brexit would reduce UK GDP by approximately 4% over the medium term compared to remaining in the EU.
Politically, Brexit intensified tensions within the United Kingdom. In Scotland, where a majority had voted to remain, it reinvigorated calls for independence. In Northern Ireland, it complicated the delicate balance established by the Good Friday Agreement. Within England, it deepened divisions between metropolitan and provincial areas.
Internationally, Brexit necessitated the renegotiation of trade relationships previously covered by EU agreements and prompted a strategic "tilt" toward the Indo-Pacific and renewed emphasis on the "special relationship" with the United States. It also reduced British influence in European affairs at a time of increasing geopolitical competition.
By 2023, seven years after the referendum, the full long-term implications of Brexit remained uncertain. The COVID-19 pandemic, which struck during the transition period, complicated efforts to disentangle Brexit's specific economic effects. Political debates continued about whether to seek closer alignment with the EU or to pursue greater divergence to capitalize on perceived opportunities for regulatory independence.
What is clear is that Brexit represented a historic shift in Britain's place in Europe and the world, ending nearly five decades of ever-closer integration with the European project and launching the country on a new and uncertain path of greater independence from its continental neighbors.
The Point of Divergence
In this alternate timeline, the Brexit referendum of June 23, 2016, produces a different result. Instead of the 51.9% to 48.1% victory for Leave that occurred in our timeline, the vote swings narrowly in favor of Remain, with 51.2% choosing to stay in the European Union and 48.8% voting to leave.
Several factors contribute to this alternative outcome:
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Turnout Differences: In this timeline, turnout is slightly higher in urban areas and among younger voters, who predominantly supported Remain. Rainy weather that affected parts of Leave-leaning areas on referendum day has a marginally greater impact on turnout in those regions.
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Campaign Dynamics: The tragic murder of pro-Remain MP Jo Cox one week before the referendum has a somewhat stronger effect on public sentiment, causing more undecided voters to break toward Remain in the final days.
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Messaging Effectiveness: The Remain campaign's economic warnings, dismissed as "Project Fear" in our timeline, resonate more effectively with key swing voters in this scenario. Meanwhile, a particularly hyperbolic claim about Turkey's imminent EU membership made by the Leave campaign is more successfully challenged and undermines Leave's credibility with some voters.
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Media Coverage: Several influential newspapers that supported Leave in our timeline adopt a more neutral stance in this alternative scenario, affecting the information environment in the final weeks before the vote.
These small differences, none individually decisive, collectively shift just enough votes to change the outcome. The final result still reveals a deeply divided country, with similar regional and demographic patterns to our timeline – Scotland, Northern Ireland, London, and other major cities strongly for Remain; much of England and Wales more supportive of Leave – but with the narrow overall majority falling on the side of continued EU membership.
Prime Minister David Cameron, who had staked his political future on securing a Remain vote, emerges weakened but vindicated. In a statement outside 10 Downing Street the morning after the referendum, he acknowledges the closeness of the result and the clear dissatisfaction many voters expressed with aspects of Britain's EU relationship. He pledges to address these concerns while working within the European Union to reform it, setting Britain on a significantly different path than the one it followed in our timeline.
Immediate Aftermath
Political Reconfiguration
The narrow victory for Remain created an immediate political dilemma for the Conservative government. Prime Minister David Cameron, though relieved to have avoided defeat, faced a party deeply divided over Europe and a significant portion of the electorate who had voted to leave. In his post-referendum cabinet reshuffle, Cameron brought prominent Leave supporters like Boris Johnson into government, appointing him as Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills with a mandate to identify EU regulations that could be reformed.
The UK Independence Party (UKIP), which had made EU withdrawal its central purpose, faced an existential crisis. Some members argued for continuing to campaign for Brexit, while others suggested broadening the party's focus to become a general right-wing populist movement. This internal conflict led to leadership struggles and declining electoral support in subsequent local elections.
The Labour Party, which had officially supported Remain but with limited enthusiasm under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, continued to face internal tensions between its metropolitan pro-EU wing and traditional working-class supporters, many of whom had voted Leave. These tensions contributed to ongoing questions about Corbyn's leadership, though the avoidance of Brexit removed what would have been a major complicating factor in Labour's position.
In Scotland, the result defused immediate calls for a second independence referendum, as the primary justification—Scotland being taken out of the EU against its will—no longer applied. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon nevertheless maintained that independence remained the Scottish National Party's goal, while focusing on securing maximum devolution within the UK and EU frameworks.
EU Relations and Reform Efforts
The EU's initial reaction combined relief at avoiding the unprecedented departure of a major member state with recognition that the close result signaled serious discontent. European Council President Donald Tusk and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker both acknowledged the need to address concerns about EU governance that had fueled Euroskepticism not only in Britain but across the continent.
Cameron leveraged the referendum result to push for reforms that had been part of his pre-referendum negotiation, particularly regarding limitations on benefits for EU migrants and protections for non-Eurozone countries. These efforts gained some traction, as other EU leaders recognized the need to accommodate British concerns to prevent future exit threats.
The UK also sought to build alliances with other member states skeptical of deeper integration, including Denmark, Sweden, and the Netherlands. This "reform caucus" began advocating for a more flexible EU that respected national sovereignty while maintaining the benefits of the single market.
Economic Developments
The immediate economic impact of the Remain vote was positive compared to our timeline's Brexit decision. The pound, which had fallen in the run-up to the referendum due to uncertainty, recovered quickly. Business investment, which would have been delayed or canceled in the event of a Leave vote, proceeded more normally, though some companies adopted a wait-and-see approach given the narrow result and continued political uncertainty.
The UK's status as a financial center remained secure, with banks and financial services firms maintaining their EU passporting rights. The City of London continued to serve as Europe's primary financial hub, though competition from Frankfurt, Paris, and Dublin gradually increased as these centers sought to attract business regardless of Brexit.
Consumer confidence and housing market activity, which dipped temporarily before the referendum, stabilized more quickly than they would have following a Leave vote. Economic growth in 2016-2017 was approximately 0.5-1% higher than in our timeline, reflecting the avoidance of Brexit-related uncertainty.
Social and Cultural Impact
The referendum campaign had exposed deep divisions in British society, and these did not immediately heal with the Remain victory. Many Leave voters felt disappointed and some expressed a sense that their legitimate concerns about sovereignty and immigration had been dismissed. Anti-EU sentiment remained strong in many communities, particularly in post-industrial regions of England and Wales.
Media coverage reflected these divisions, with pro-Leave newspapers maintaining critical coverage of the EU while emphasizing the need for reform. Social media continued to feature polarized debates about Britain's place in Europe, though without the specific flashpoints that Brexit implementation would have provided in our timeline.
Immigration from EU countries, a key issue in the referendum campaign, continued under freedom of movement rules. However, the government implemented more rigorous enforcement of existing restrictions and worked to address local pressures on public services in areas with high migration. The Home Office also reformed non-EU immigration systems to create a more balanced overall approach.
Long-term Impact
Britain's Evolving EU Relationship
Reform from Within
By the early 2020s, Britain had established itself as the leader of a "reform caucus" within the EU, working with like-minded member states to promote a vision of a more flexible union. This approach yielded some significant successes, including:
- Enhanced protections for non-Eurozone members in financial regulation
- A revised approach to "ever closer union" that explicitly acknowledged different levels of integration for different member states
- Greater national parliament involvement in EU decision-making through a strengthened "yellow card" procedure
- Reformed approaches to freedom of movement that maintained the principle while allowing more national discretion in implementation
These reforms did not fundamentally alter the EU's trajectory but created more space for national variation within the broader European framework. Britain's continued presence also provided a counterweight to Franco-German leadership, creating a more balanced power dynamic within the union.
Selective Engagement
The UK maintained its traditional pattern of selective engagement with EU initiatives, participating enthusiastically in some areas while keeping distance in others. It remained outside the Eurozone and Schengen Area but played active roles in:
- The development of the EU's digital single market
- European defense cooperation, though carefully balanced with NATO commitments
- Climate policy, where the UK often pushed for more ambitious targets
- Research and innovation programs, where British universities and companies remained major participants
This selective approach allowed Britain to maximize the benefits of EU membership in areas aligned with its interests while minimizing integration in more sensitive domains. The approach was not without tensions, as other member states occasionally accused Britain of "cherry-picking," but it proved sustainable as a long-term strategy.
Public Opinion Evolution
British public opinion toward the EU evolved gradually following the referendum. The narrow Remain victory did not immediately resolve Euroskepticism, which remained a significant force in British politics. However, as the practical benefits of membership became clearer through comparison with the challenges faced by non-member states like Switzerland and Norway, support for EU membership gradually increased.
By 2023, polling typically showed support for remaining in the EU at 55-60%, with 35-40% still preferring to leave. This shift reflected both demographic changes (younger, more pro-EU voters replacing older generations) and pragmatic acceptance of the economic and diplomatic advantages of membership, even among those with reservations about aspects of European integration.
Economic Trajectory
Trade and Investment
Britain's continued EU membership preserved its position within the world's largest trading bloc. UK-EU trade continued to grow, though at a modest pace reflecting the mature nature of these economic relationships. British businesses maintained unfettered access to EU markets, avoiding the non-tariff barriers and administrative costs that Brexit would have imposed in our timeline.
Foreign direct investment remained stronger than in our timeline, particularly in manufacturing sectors where integrated European supply chains were crucial. The UK continued to attract significant investment from both EU and non-EU sources, leveraging its position as an English-speaking gateway to the European market with a favorable business environment.
Financial Services
The City of London maintained its position as Europe's premier financial center, benefiting from continued passporting rights that allowed UK-based firms to operate throughout the EU. However, competition from other European financial centers intensified as part of a natural evolution of the European financial landscape.
The UK government worked to balance EU financial regulations with maintaining London's global competitiveness. This sometimes created tensions with EU partners pushing for tighter regulation, but Britain's significant weight in European financial services gave it substantial influence in shaping these regulations.
Economic Performance
By 2023, the UK economy was approximately 4-5% larger than in our post-Brexit timeline, reflecting the avoidance of trade friction with the EU and greater business certainty. This translated to higher government revenue and more fiscal space for public services and investment. However, the structural challenges facing the British economy—including relatively low productivity growth and regional inequalities—remained, as these were not primarily EU-related issues.
The COVID-19 pandemic still delivered a severe economic shock in 2020-21, but recovery was somewhat stronger due to more robust trading relationships and supply chains. The UK participated in some EU pandemic response measures, including vaccine procurement, though with mixed results that reflected the challenges of coordinating health policy across national boundaries.
Political Landscape
Conservative Party Evolution
The Conservative Party remained divided over Europe, but the divisions evolved differently than in our timeline. Without Brexit as an all-consuming issue, the party focused more on traditional policy debates around taxation, public services, and social issues. Euroskeptic MPs maintained a significant caucus within the party but worked primarily to influence Britain's approach to EU reform rather than pushing for withdrawal.
David Cameron stepped down as planned before the 2020 general election, with his legacy defined by both the gamble of the referendum and the subsequent reform efforts. His successor continued the strategy of critical engagement with the EU while emphasizing distinctively British approaches to policy challenges.
Labour Party Dynamics
The Labour Party navigated a complex relationship with the EU, balancing the pro-European views of its urban, educated support base with the more skeptical perspectives of traditional working-class voters. Without Brexit as a polarizing issue, the party had more space to develop positions on EU reform that acknowledged both the benefits of membership and the need for changes to address concerns about sovereignty and economic impact.
Jeremy Corbyn's leadership faced challenges similar to our timeline, though without Brexit dominating the political agenda, there was more focus on his positions on other issues. The party's internal debates about economic policy and electoral strategy proceeded without the complicating factor of Brexit positioning.
The Nationalist Dimension
In Scotland, the SNP maintained its support for independence but faced a more challenging environment for advancing this agenda. Without the grievance of Scotland being taken out of the EU against its will, the case for a second independence referendum was weaker. The party focused on maximizing Scottish autonomy within the UK and EU frameworks while waiting for more favorable conditions for an independence push.
In Northern Ireland, the constitutional status quo remained more stable than in our timeline. Without the complications of Brexit and the Northern Ireland Protocol, cross-border cooperation continued to develop under the Good Friday Agreement framework. Calls for a united Ireland referendum remained but without the additional impetus that Brexit provided in our timeline.
International Relations
European Influence
Britain maintained significant influence in European affairs, often acting as a bridge between different perspectives within the EU. Its diplomatic, military, and economic weight made it an essential player in EU foreign policy, though it sometimes pursued distinct approaches reflecting its global ties and perspectives.
The UK played important roles in EU responses to major challenges including Russian aggression against Ukraine, climate change negotiations, and economic relations with China. British diplomats continued to hold senior positions in EU institutions, shaping policies from within.
Global Britain in Practice
The "Global Britain" concept evolved differently without Brexit. Rather than positioning itself as an independent global actor, the UK emphasized its role as both a European power and a country with global reach through its Commonwealth ties, special relationship with the United States, and expanding connections in the Indo-Pacific.
This dual identity allowed Britain to leverage EU collective weight in trade negotiations and international forums while maintaining flexibility to pursue specific national interests. The UK continued to coordinate closely with EU partners on many international issues while sometimes taking distinct positions reflecting its particular global role.
Transatlantic Relations
UK-US relations continued to be close but evolved in the context of Britain's EU membership. During the Trump administration (2017-2021), this sometimes created tensions as the UK balanced its transatlantic partnership with European positions on issues like the Iran nuclear deal, climate policy, and trade.
The UK worked to position itself as a bridge between the US and EU, with varying success depending on the specific issue and the state of broader transatlantic relations. This bridging role became somewhat easier under the Biden administration, which took a more positive approach to EU cooperation.
Social and Cultural Impact
Immigration and Diversity
Freedom of movement with the EU continued, maintaining the flow of European migrants to the UK. However, the government implemented more robust enforcement of existing restrictions and developed support programs for communities experiencing rapid demographic change.
The immigration system for non-EU nationals was reformed to create a more balanced overall approach, addressing concerns about preferential treatment for Europeans. This included more pathways for skilled workers from Commonwealth countries and other global partners.
British society remained diverse and cosmopolitan, particularly in major cities, while policy efforts focused on promoting integration and addressing the economic and social factors that had fueled anti-immigration sentiment.
British national identity continued to evolve in the context of both European integration and global connections. The referendum campaign had exposed deep divisions in how different communities viewed Britain's place in the world, and these did not disappear with the Remain victory.
However, without the polarizing implementation of Brexit, there was more space for nuanced conversations about British identity in the 21st century. Cultural and educational initiatives promoted understanding of both Britain's European heritage and its wider global history and connections.
Media and Public Discourse
The British media landscape remained divided on EU issues, with some outlets maintaining strongly Euroskeptic editorial positions. However, without the daily controversies of Brexit implementation, coverage became less intense and more focused on specific policy questions rather than fundamental constitutional issues.
Public discourse about Europe became somewhat less polarized over time, though significant differences in perspective remained. The government's reform-focused approach provided a middle ground that acknowledged concerns about aspects of EU membership while maintaining its core benefits.
Expert Opinions
Professor Anand Menon, Director of UK in a Changing Europe, observes: "A narrow Remain victory would not have resolved Britain's complex relationship with the European Union. The fundamental tensions—between sovereignty and integration, between different visions of Britain's place in the world—would have persisted. However, it would have allowed these tensions to be managed within existing institutional frameworks rather than through the disruptive process of withdrawal. The UK would likely have continued its traditional approach of seeking to shape the EU from within while maintaining certain opt-outs and special arrangements. This would have preserved economic benefits while still allowing for a distinctive British approach to European integration."
Sir Ivan Rogers, former UK Permanent Representative to the EU, offers a more skeptical assessment: "Even with a Remain victory, the UK would have remained an awkward partner in the EU. The closeness of the result would have emboldened rather than silenced Euroskeptic voices, and any government would have faced pressure to demonstrate it was addressing the concerns that drove the Leave vote. This might have led to a more transactional approach to EU membership, with Britain increasingly focused on maximizing economic benefits while resisting deeper political integration. Such an approach would have created ongoing tensions with partners seeking a more cohesive union, potentially leading to a different kind of crisis in EU-UK relations down the road."
Dr. Sara Hagemann, Associate Professor at the London School of Economics, highlights the European dimension: "A British decision to remain would have significantly altered the EU's development. The UK has traditionally been a voice for economic liberalism, enlargement, and a more intergovernmental approach within the EU. Without Brexit, the balance of power within the Union would have been different, potentially slowing moves toward deeper integration in areas like fiscal policy and defense. However, Britain would also have faced the challenge of constructively engaging with necessary reforms rather than simply opposing them from the sidelines. The success of continued UK membership would have depended on whether both sides could develop a more positive and forward-looking relationship rather than the often reluctant partnership of the past."
Further Reading
Brexit: Why Britain Voted to Leave the European Union by Harold D. Clarke, Matthew Goodwin, and Paul Whiteley
The European Union: A Very Short Introduction by Simon Usherwood and John Pinder
Britain and Europe in a Troubled World by Vernon Bogdanor
Reluctant European: Britain and the European Union from 1945 to Brexit by Stephen Wall
The Economics of Brexit: What Have We Learned? by Thomas Sampson
Britain Alone: The Path from Suez to Brexit by Philip Stephens