What If Wales Gained More Devolved Powers Earlier?

The Actual History

Wales's journey toward devolution has been markedly different from Scotland's and Northern Ireland's, characterized by more hesitant public support and a slower path to self-governance. Following centuries of political integration with England after the Acts of Union (1536-1543), Welsh national identity persisted primarily through cultural and linguistic expressions rather than political institutions.

The modern push for Welsh devolution gained momentum in the mid-20th century. The establishment of the Welsh Office in 1964 under Harold Wilson's Labour government represented the first notable administrative recognition of Wales's distinct status within the United Kingdom. This was followed by the appointment of a Secretary of State for Wales, creating limited administrative devolution but no legislative powers.

A significant attempt at devolution came in 1979 when, alongside Scotland, Wales held a referendum on establishing a Welsh Assembly. However, unlike Scotland's narrow defeat (where 51.6% voted against), the Welsh electorate overwhelmingly rejected devolution with 79.7% voting against and only 20.3% in favor. This crushing defeat effectively halted the devolution movement for nearly two decades.

The Thatcher and Major Conservative governments (1979-1997) were characterized by centralization rather than devolution, with policies that many in Wales perceived as unsympathetic to Welsh interests, particularly regarding the dramatic decline of the coal mining industry. This period paradoxically strengthened nationalist sentiment in parts of Wales, though not to the extent seen in Scotland.

When Tony Blair's "New Labour" government came to power in 1997, devolution formed a key part of their constitutional reform agenda. A second Welsh devolution referendum was held on September 18, 1997, resulting in an extremely narrow victory for the pro-devolution side – 50.3% to 49.7%, a margin of just 6,721 votes out of over a million cast.

The subsequent Government of Wales Act 1998 created the National Assembly for Wales, which initially had only secondary legislative powers – the ability to elaborate on primary legislation from Westminster through statutory instruments in certain devolved areas. This represented a significantly weaker form of devolution than that granted to Scotland.

Further devolution came incrementally: the Government of Wales Act 2006 formally separated the executive (Welsh Government) from the legislature (National Assembly) and created a pathway to primary law-making powers, which were approved in a 2011 referendum. The Wales Act 2014 devolved some tax powers, and the Wales Act 2017 moved Wales to a "reserved powers" model similar to Scotland's. In 2020, the National Assembly was renamed "Senedd Cymru" or "Welsh Parliament" to reflect its expanded powers.

Despite this gradual expansion of devolution, Wales's journey has been characterized by incremental change, limited public enthusiasm (compared to Scotland), and a devolution settlement that remains less comprehensive than Scotland's, reflecting the complex nature of Welsh national identity and its relationship with the wider United Kingdom.

The Point of Divergence

What if Wales had gained significant devolved powers decades earlier? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where Wales established a legislative assembly with substantial powers in the 1970s, fundamentally altering the constitutional development of the United Kingdom and the trajectory of Welsh politics and identity.

The most plausible point of divergence centers on the 1979 Welsh devolution referendum. In our timeline, this referendum saw an overwhelming rejection of devolution, with almost 80% voting against. However, several factors could have altered this outcome:

First, the referendum could have been structured differently. The actual referendum required not just a simple majority but that 40% of the entire electorate vote in favor – a hurdle not reached even in Scotland. In our alternate timeline, Prime Minister James Callaghan's Labour government might have opted for a simple majority requirement, making success more achievable.

Second, the political campaign could have unfolded differently. The anti-devolution side in our timeline benefited from a divided Labour Party (Wales's dominant political force) and effective opposition from Conservative and some Labour figures who portrayed devolution as expensive and unnecessary. In this alternate timeline, the pro-devolution forces might have mounted a more compelling campaign emphasizing Welsh cultural distinctiveness and economic self-determination.

A third possibility involves timing. If the referendum had been held earlier in Callaghan's premiership, before the "Winter of Discontent" industrial disputes that damaged the government's standing, the outcome might have been more favorable to devolution.

Perhaps most plausibly, the divergence might have occurred if the 1974-79 Labour government had pursued a different strategy altogether, establishing a Welsh Assembly through parliamentary legislation without a referendum, similar to how Northern Ireland's institutions were initially created. This approach would have been constitutionally valid and might have occurred if Welsh Labour MPs had been more uniformly supportive of devolution.

In this alternate timeline, we'll explore how Wales establishes a legislative assembly with significant powers by 1979 – either through a successful referendum or direct parliamentary action – and how this earlier devolution reshapes Welsh politics, identity, and Britain's constitutional framework in the decades that follow.

Immediate Aftermath

Constitutional Adjustments and Early Assembly Structure

In our alternate timeline, the successful establishment of a Welsh Assembly in 1979 necessitated immediate practical and constitutional adaptations. Unlike Scotland, which had retained distinct legal and educational systems after 1707, Wales had been fully integrated into England's systems since the 16th century Acts of Union, making the separation of powers more complex.

The new Welsh Assembly established in Cardiff initially received powers over domestic policy areas including education, health, housing, local government, and cultural affairs. Westminster retained control over defense, foreign policy, and macroeconomic management – a similar arrangement to what was proposed for Scotland.

The Callaghan government, already struggling with economic challenges and a precarious parliamentary majority, devoted significant resources to establishing the new institution before the May 1979 general election. The inaugural Welsh Assembly elections were scheduled for autumn 1979, with transitional arrangements in place under the oversight of the Secretary of State for Wales, John Morris.

Political Landscape Transformation

The creation of the Welsh Assembly fundamentally altered the dynamics of the 1979 UK general election in Wales. While Margaret Thatcher's Conservatives still won nationally, the campaign in Wales focused substantially on which party could best represent Welsh interests in the new devolved system.

The inaugural Welsh Assembly election in October 1979 produced a Labour-led administration, though without an overall majority. Labour won approximately 40% of the seats, necessitating coalition negotiations with Plaid Cymru, which had secured around 20% of seats – far better than their Westminster representation. This marked the beginning of a more pluralistic Welsh political environment and legitimized Plaid Cymru as a party of government rather than merely a protest movement.

The First Secretary (the title used before "First Minister" became standard) was likely Labour's John Morris, who resigned his Westminster seat to lead the new institution. His administration faced immediate challenges in establishing the Assembly's authority and navigating relations with a Westminster government of a different political complexion.

Welsh Economy Under Early Devolution

The timing of Welsh devolution coincided with the beginning of Thatcher's economic restructuring of Britain, particularly affecting Wales's coal mining and steel industries. Having its own government allowed Wales to respond differently to these challenges compared to our timeline.

While the Welsh Assembly lacked control over macroeconomic policy, it could influence industrial and regional development strategies. The Morris administration established the Welsh Development Agency with enhanced powers compared to our timeline, focusing on attracting alternative employment to mining communities and preserving strategic industries where possible.

The Welsh government's ability to present a unified voice against pit closures didn't prevent the broader decline of coal mining, but it did result in more gradual transitions and greater investment in affected communities. By 1983, when the most severe mine closures began, Wales had already established alternative economic development pathways that softened (though couldn't eliminate) the social impact of deindustrialization.

Cultural and Linguistic Renaissance

Perhaps the most immediate and visible impact occurred in Welsh cultural and linguistic policy. While the Welsh language had received increasing recognition since the 1960s (including the Welsh Language Act 1967), devolution accelerated this process dramatically.

The Welsh Assembly passed comprehensive language legislation by 1981, establishing Welsh as an official language in governance and education much earlier than in our timeline. This included mandatory Welsh language education in schools and bilingual requirements for government communications. These policies came decades earlier than their equivalents in our timeline, where the Welsh Language Act wasn't passed until 1993 and Welsh didn't receive official status until 2011.

Welsh-medium education expanded rapidly under Assembly direction, resulting in a measurable slowing of the decline in Welsh language usage by the mid-1980s. This earlier intervention proved crucial for language preservation, occurring before another generation had shifted primarily to English.

The "Thatcher Effect" on Welsh Devolution

Margaret Thatcher's government initially viewed Welsh devolution with skepticism, but pragmatically accepted the new constitutional reality rather than attempting to reverse it. This acceptance was strategic – fighting Welsh devolution would have consumed political capital needed for Thatcher's economic reform agenda.

The relationship between Cardiff and Westminster during the 1980s was characterized by tension, particularly regarding economic policy and industrial closures. However, the existence of the Assembly provided Wales with a unified institutional voice against certain aspects of Thatcherism, contrasting with our timeline where opposition was more fragmented.

By 1985, this divergent path had created a markedly different Wales than in our timeline – one with established governmental institutions, a stronger sense of national identity, and the beginning of a distinct policy approach that would amplify in the decades to follow.

Long-term Impact

Constitutional Evolution and Expanded Powers

The earlier establishment of Welsh devolution fundamentally altered the United Kingdom's constitutional development trajectory. Instead of the asymmetric devolution implemented in the late 1990s in our timeline, the UK developed a more federal structure earlier and more organically.

By the late 1980s, the success of the Welsh model (despite tensions with Westminster) strengthened calls for similar devolution in Scotland. In this alternate timeline, the Scottish Assembly was established around 1987-88, during Thatcher's third term, as the government sought to address growing Scottish nationalism. This created a domino effect in British constitutional reform decades before our timeline's changes.

Welsh devolution itself evolved through several stages of power expansion:

The 1989 Wales Act (passed under John Major's government) granted the Welsh Assembly primary legislative powers in devolved areas, eliminating the need for Westminster approval of Welsh legislation – a power Wales didn't receive until 2011 in our timeline.
The 1994 Fiscal Responsibility Act devolved limited tax-varying powers to Wales, including the ability to adjust income tax by up to 3 percentage points and control over certain smaller taxes – powers that Wales only began receiving after 2014 in our timeline.
By 2005, in response to growing confidence in devolved governance, the Welsh Parliament (renamed from Assembly earlier than in our timeline) gained control over criminal justice, policing, and aspects of energy policy – powers that remain largely with Westminster even today in our timeline.

This accelerated devolution meant that by the 2010s, Wales had developed a quasi-federal relationship with the UK, with greater autonomy than it has even now in our actual timeline.

The Reshaping of Welsh Politics

Earlier devolution transformed Welsh political culture more profoundly than in our timeline. The Welsh Parliament became the primary focus of Welsh political ambition rather than Westminster, attracting top political talent who might otherwise have pursued UK-wide careers.

Party politics evolved distinctively:

Labour remained the dominant party but developed a more distinctly Welsh identity earlier, similar to how Scottish Labour eventually diverged from UK Labour. By the 1990s, "Welsh Labour" operated with significant autonomy from the UK party.
Plaid Cymru evolved from a cultural-nationalist party into a mainstream social-democratic force earlier, regularly participating in government either as a coalition partner or as the leading party during periods of Labour weakness. Their first First Minister likely took office in the late 1990s rather than waiting until the 2020s as seems possible in our timeline.
The Welsh Conservative Party developed a distinct identity from the UK Conservatives by the early 1990s, adopting more pro-devolution positions and distancing itself from some Thatcherite policies that remained unpopular in Wales.
A significant Welsh Liberal Democrat presence emerged as the party positioned itself as pragmatic coalition partners in the proportional representation system adopted for the Welsh Parliament.

The emergence of a distinct Welsh political class and media created a more vibrant democratic culture focused on Welsh issues rather than viewing Welsh politics primarily through a Westminster lens.

Economic Divergence and Development

With decades of additional self-governance, Wales pursued economic strategies that diverged significantly from UK-wide approaches:

The "Welsh Model" of Development

By the mid-1990s, Wales had established what economists termed the "Welsh Model" – a development approach that balanced market economics with stronger public sector involvement than in England. This included:

Earlier and more substantial investment in renewable energy, particularly wind and later marine energy, establishing Wales as a leader in these sectors by the 2000s.
A more interventionist industrial strategy that preserved elements of manufacturing while facilitating transition to higher-value sectors.
Development of Cardiff as a significant European financial services center specializing in ethical finance and green investment.
Creation of technology corridors connecting Welsh universities with industry, particularly in medical technology and digital services.

While Welsh GDP per capita didn't fully catch up to English levels, the gap narrowed significantly compared to our timeline, where Wales continues to lag substantially behind.

Infrastructure and Connectivity

With control over infrastructure spending, Wales prioritized different projects:

The electrification of the Welsh railway network was completed by 2000, decades ahead of our timeline's still-incomplete program.
A comprehensive transport strategy integrated North and South Wales more effectively, reducing the historical disconnect between these regions.
The M4 relief road around Newport was completed in the early 1990s rather than being repeatedly canceled as in our timeline.
Digital infrastructure received early investment, making Wales one of the first European regions with comprehensive broadband coverage by the mid-2000s.

Cultural and Linguistic Transformation

The most dramatic divergence from our timeline occurred in Welsh cultural and linguistic development:

Language Revival

Earlier and more comprehensive language policies created a genuine bilingual society:

By 2025 in this alternate timeline, approximately 35-40% of the Welsh population speaks Welsh fluently (compared to around 22% in our actual timeline), with particularly strong uptake among younger generations.
Welsh-medium education became the norm in many areas outside the historical Welsh-speaking heartlands, with roughly 40% of primary schools teaching primarily through Welsh by 2010.
Welsh language media developed into a comprehensive ecosystem including multiple television channels, radio stations, newspapers, and digital platforms.
Welsh achieved true equality with English in public administration, business, and daily life across much of Wales.

Cultural Confidence and Production

A stronger sense of Welsh identity fostered greater cultural production:

Welsh literature, music, film, and television flourished with institutional support, developing distinctive industries rather than being subsumed within broader British media.
Cardiff developed as a major European center for film and television production, attracting international projects while producing distinctive Welsh content.
The National Museum of Wales expanded into a network of world-class institutions celebrating Welsh history, art, and innovation.

International Relations and European Engagement

With increased autonomy, Wales developed a distinct international profile:

By the late 1990s, Wales established direct representation in Brussels and maintained quasi-diplomatic missions in key partner nations.
Wales developed particularly strong relationships with other European regions with strong identities, including Catalonia, Flanders, Bavaria, and Brittany, creating networks of sub-state cooperation.
Welsh participation in European Union regional programs was more direct and substantial than in our timeline, resulting in more effective use of structural funds.

Crucially, when the Brexit referendum occurred in 2016 (assuming similar broader UK political trends), Wales likely voted to remain in the EU by a comfortable margin, unlike the leave vote it delivered in our timeline. This would have created additional constitutional tensions within the UK after 2016, potentially accelerating discussions of Welsh independence that remain relatively marginal in our actual 2025.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Richard Wyn Jones, Professor of Welsh Politics at Cardiff University, offers this perspective: "Earlier Welsh devolution would have fundamentally altered the trajectory of both Welsh national identity and UK constitutional development. The critical factor would have been the establishment of distinctly Welsh political institutions during the Thatcher era, providing an institutional focus for opposition to certain aspects of Thatcherism. This would have accelerated the development of a distinct Welsh civic identity and political culture decades earlier than occurred in our actual history. By 2025, we would likely see a Wales with both stronger internal cohesion and a more confident position within a more federal UK than exists today. The language would be significantly stronger, and the historical inferiority complex that has sometimes characterized Welsh political culture would have been largely overcome through decades of successful self-governance."

Professor Laura McAllister, expert in Welsh governance and former chair of Sport Wales, provides this analysis: "The counterfactual of earlier Welsh devolution raises fascinating questions about both institutional development and identity formation. Wales in our timeline suffered from receiving a weaker initial devolution settlement than Scotland, requiring multiple rounds of constitutional catch-up. With a 1970s start and four additional decades of institutional development, Wales would likely have a more comprehensive and coherent set of powers today. The most intriguing aspect, however, would be the impact on Welsh identity. Earlier devolution would have given institutional expression to Welshness during a period when traditional industrial communities were being transformed. This would have created a stronger foundation for civic Welsh identity across the entire nation, potentially bridging some of the north-south and Welsh-speaking/non-Welsh-speaking divides that continue to characterize Wales in our actual 2025."

Dr. Huw Lewis, specialist in language policy at Aberystwyth University, suggests: "The timing of Welsh language revitalization efforts is critical to understanding their effectiveness. In our timeline, comprehensive language policies weren't implemented until the 1990s and 2000s, after another generation had shifted toward English monolingualism. Earlier devolution would have enabled language intervention at a crucial moment before the traditional Welsh-speaking communities had fragmented to the extent they did. The difference would be qualitative as well as quantitative—not just more Welsh speakers, but Welsh established as a natural language of governance, business, and everyday life across much more of Wales. We would likely see a Wales where bilingualism is the expected norm rather than the exception in professional and public contexts, similar to what we observe in the Basque Country or Catalonia, rather than the more limited bilingualism that exists in Wales today."