What If Western Australia Seceded from Australia?

The Actual History

Western Australia's journey toward federation and subsequent flirtation with secession reflects the complex regional dynamics that have shaped Australia's national identity. Initially reluctant to join the Commonwealth of Australia, Western Australia was the last colony to agree to federation, joining only after securing promises of a transcontinental railway and other concessions. The colony's representatives signed the Federation agreement in 1900, and Western Australia officially became an Australian state when the Commonwealth of Australia was inaugurated on January 1, 1901.

The vast distance separating Western Australia from the eastern states—approximately 2,000 kilometers of desert and scrubland—fostered a sense of isolation and independent identity. This geographical separation was compounded by economic differences; while the eastern states developed diverse manufacturing sectors, Western Australia's economy remained heavily dependent on primary industries, particularly agriculture and mining.

These differences in economic structure created tensions that came to a head during the Great Depression of the 1930s. Federal tariff policies designed to protect eastern manufacturing interests significantly increased costs for Western Australian farmers and primary producers, who relied heavily on imported goods and equipment while simultaneously depending on export markets for their products. The economic strain was exacerbated by falling wool and wheat prices, creating a perfect storm of discontent in Western Australia.

Under the leadership of Premier Sir James Mitchell, the Nationalist-Country coalition government responded to this growing dissatisfaction by establishing a Secession League and calling for a referendum on the question of secession. On April 8, 1933, Western Australians went to the polls for both a state election and the secession referendum. The referendum asked: "Are you in favour of the State of Western Australia withdrawing from the Federal Commonwealth established under the Commonwealth of Australia Constitution Act (Imperial)?"

The results were decisive: 138,653 voters (66.2%) supported secession, while 70,706 (33.8%) voted against. Ironically, on the same day, the pro-secession Mitchell government lost the state election to the anti-secessionist Labor Party led by Philip Collier. Despite his personal opposition to secession, Collier felt obligated to honor the referendum result and established a delegation to petition the British Parliament for the right to secede.

In 1935, a Western Australian delegation traveled to London to present their case to the British Parliament's Joint Select Committee. However, the Committee refused to receive the petition, ruling that it could not interfere in the affairs of the Australian Commonwealth without a request from the Commonwealth itself—a request that would never come. The Committee concluded that the Imperial Parliament had no authority to grant secession without the Australian federal government's consent.

With this legal avenue exhausted and improving economic conditions as Australia emerged from the Depression, the secession movement gradually lost momentum. No further serious attempts at secession occurred, though the sentiment has occasionally resurfaced during periods of federal-state tension. Western Australia remains part of the Commonwealth of Australia today, though a distinct sense of separateness and a tradition of "western exceptionalism" continues to influence the state's political culture.

The Point of Divergence

What if Western Australia's 1933 secession referendum had actually led to independence? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where a combination of different legal interpretations, political circumstances, and international pressures allowed Western Australia to successfully break away from the Australian Commonwealth and establish itself as a sovereign nation.

The point of divergence could have occurred in several plausible ways:

First, the Joint Committee of the British Parliament might have reached a different legal conclusion in 1935. Instead of determining that they lacked authority to receive Western Australia's petition, the Committee could have accepted the argument that the Imperial Parliament, having created the Australian Commonwealth through legislation, retained the power to modify it. Legal scholars have noted that this interpretation had merit, particularly given that the Statute of Westminster 1931 (which limited British legislative power over dominions) had not yet been formally adopted by Australia.

Alternatively, the divergence might have stemmed from a different political climate in Britain. If British political interests had aligned more closely with an independent Western Australia—perhaps seeing strategic advantage in having direct influence over this resource-rich region with its critical Indian Ocean ports—British politicians might have been more receptive to Western Australia's petition.

A third possibility involves the Australian federal government itself. If economic conditions had worsened rather than improved in the mid-1930s, or if more antagonistic federal policies toward Western Australia had been implemented, the Commonwealth government might have eventually consented to Western Australia's departure, particularly if civil unrest in the west had become unmanageable.

In our alternate timeline, we consider a scenario combining these factors: a more sympathetic British government, continued economic grievances, and a weakened federal resistance to Western Australian independence. The pivotal moment comes in late 1935 when, rather than dismissing Western Australia's petition, the British Parliament agrees to consider legislation enabling Western Australia's secession, conditional on a negotiated settlement with the Commonwealth of Australia.

Immediate Aftermath

Political Crisis and Negotiations (1935-1937)

The British Parliament's willingness to consider Western Australia's secession petition triggered an immediate constitutional crisis in Australia. Prime Minister Joseph Lyons' government, which had confidently expected Britain to reject the petition, now faced the real possibility of Commonwealth dissolution. Emergency cabinet meetings were convened in Canberra, while in Perth, Premier Philip Collier—though personally opposed to secession—found himself in the unexpected position of potentially becoming the founding leader of a new nation.

Initial reactions from the eastern states ranged from indignation to threats of economic blockade. However, pragmatic voices eventually prevailed, recognizing that a messy, contested separation would damage all parties involved. By early 1936, formal negotiations began between Commonwealth representatives and a Western Australian delegation, mediated by British officials.

The negotiations addressed several critical issues:

Debt Allocation: Western Australia would assume a proportional share of Commonwealth debt, calculated based on population and infrastructure investment.
Defense Arrangements: Transitional agreements allowed continued Australian military presence at key Western Australian bases, with provisions for developing independent Western Australian defense forces.
Trade Relations: A customs union would remain in place for five years, gradually transitioning to a preferential trade agreement.
Citizenship and Migration: Dual citizenship would be automatically granted to current residents, with free movement rights preserved for ten years.

These negotiations stretched through 1936, complicated by concurrent global events, particularly the abdication crisis in Britain and growing tensions in Europe. By March 1937, a comprehensive separation agreement was finalized, establishing a two-year transition period.

Economic Realignment (1937-1939)

Western Australia's economy underwent significant restructuring during the transition period. Perth quickly established independent treasury operations and began issuing the Western Australian pound, initially pegged at parity with the Australian pound but managed by a newly formed Western Australian Reserve Bank.

The new nation's economic strategy centered on leveraging its agricultural exports and mineral resources. Free from Commonwealth tariff policies, Western Australia immediately reduced import duties on agricultural equipment, providing relief to farmers still recovering from Depression-era hardships. Simultaneously, the Western Australian government courted international investment in mining exploration, offering favorable terms that would have been politically impossible under federal arrangements.

Britain, seeing strategic advantages in a closely allied Western Australia, extended preferential trade status and investment capital. This British economic patronage proved crucial, as the Commonwealth government, despite the formal agreements, implemented various measures that complicated Western Australian trade with eastern Australia.

By late 1938, Western Australia had established direct shipping lines to Britain, Japan, and the Dutch East Indies, reducing dependence on eastern Australian ports. The economy, initially projected to contract following secession, instead showed modest growth, bolstered by agricultural recovery and new mining ventures.

International Recognition and Identity Formation (1939-1940)

On January 1, 1939, Western Australia officially became an independent dominion within the British Empire—the Dominion of Western Australia. The independence ceremony in Perth featured the raising of a new national flag combining elements of the British Blue Ensign with the state's black swan emblem.

International recognition followed quickly from Britain and its dominions, though the Commonwealth of Australia delayed formal recognition until April 1939. By mid-year, the United States, Japan, and major European powers had established diplomatic relations with Perth. The League of Nations admitted Western Australia as its newest member in September 1939.

Domestically, the transition to nationhood catalyzed a period of identity formation. The new government launched initiatives celebrating Western Australia's distinctive history and character. School curricula were revised to emphasize Western Australian perspectives, and national symbols were established through public competitions.

The outbreak of World War II in September 1939 accelerated Western Australia's nation-building process. Like other British dominions, Western Australia declared war on Germany independently, though in coordination with Britain. This act of sovereign decision-making on the world stage crystallized Western Australian national identity at a crucial moment in history.

Constitutional Settlement (1940)

After operating under a transitional government, Western Australia ratified its permanent constitution in March 1940. The Constitution of Western Australia established a Westminster-style parliamentary democracy while retaining the British monarch as head of state. The bicameral parliament consisted of a Legislative Assembly and Legislative Council, with the Prime Minister (no longer called Premier) serving as head of government.

The constitutional settlement included provisions specifically addressing issues that had motivated secession, including prohibitions on certain types of external tariffs and requirements for regional representation in government structures. Perhaps most significantly, the constitution included stringent requirements for any future political union or federation, effectively ensuring Western Australia would remain independent.

Long-term Impact

Wartime Experience and Strategic Importance (1940-1945)

World War II fundamentally shaped Western Australia's development as a sovereign nation. Initially, its war effort aligned closely with Australia's, but its strategic position—particularly its proximity to Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean shipping lanes—soon elevated its importance in Allied planning.

Military Buildup

The threat of Japanese expansion prompted rapid militarization. Britain and the United States invested heavily in Western Australian naval facilities, with Fremantle becoming a major Allied submarine base by 1942. The Royal Western Australian Air Force (RWAAF) was established with British assistance, operating primarily British aircraft but developing its distinctive operational doctrines suited to the vast distances of the Indian Ocean region.

When Singapore fell to Japanese forces in February 1942, Western Australia's strategic significance increased dramatically. Allied planners recognized Perth as the last secure major port between India and Australia. This resulted in accelerated defense infrastructure development:

Expansion of harbor facilities at Fremantle, Albany, and Geraldton
Construction of a network of airfields across the northern territories
Establishment of radar stations along the entire coastline
Development of fuel storage and munitions facilities inland, protected from potential coastal attacks

Economic Transformation

The war economy catalyzed Western Australia's industrial development. New manufacturing capabilities emerged to support the military buildup, creating the foundations for post-war industrialization:

Shipbuilding and repair facilities in Fremantle
Aircraft maintenance operations in Perth
Food processing for military rations
Light manufacturing of military equipment and supplies

Unlike the eastern Australian states, Western Australia largely avoided Japanese air attacks, making it a secure base for Allied operations. This security attracted investment and technical expertise that might otherwise have been directed elsewhere.

Post-War Development and the Resources Boom (1945-1970)

Following the war, Western Australia faced the challenge of redefining its role in the changing global order. Initial economic forecasts were pessimistic, predicting that the loss of wartime spending would trigger recession. Instead, several factors combined to create a period of sustained growth:

Commonwealth Realignment

The relationship between Western Australia and the remainder of Australia required normalization after wartime cooperation. The Perth Agreement of 1947 established:

A free trade area eliminating most tariffs between the nations
Coordinated currency management
Mutual recognition of professional qualifications
Free movement of citizens

While falling short of political reunification (which some eastern Australian politicians advocated), these arrangements facilitated economic integration while preserving Western Australian sovereignty.

Mining Revolution

The discovery of significant iron ore deposits in the Pilbara region in the 1950s transformed Western Australia's economic prospects. Unlike in our timeline, where federal export controls initially hindered development, the independent Western Australian government immediately sought international investment to develop these resources.

Japanese steel mills, rebuilding after the war, provided ready markets and investment capital. By 1960, massive mining operations were underway in the Pilbara, followed by developments in:

Bauxite mining in the Darling Range (1961)
Nickel discoveries at Kambalda (1966)
Natural gas fields off the northwest coast (1967)

The independent regulatory framework established by Western Australia proved more nimble than the federal system in our timeline, allowing faster project approvals and more competitive tax arrangements that attracted international mining companies.

Diversified International Relations

Free from Australia's diplomatic constraints, Western Australia developed a distinctive foreign policy emphasizing Indian Ocean and Southeast Asian connections. Trade missions to Japan, Indonesia, and India in the 1950s established Western Australia as a reliable resource partner. By 1965, Japan had supplanted Britain as Western Australia's largest trading partner—a shift that occurred nearly a decade earlier than in our timeline.

The Oil Shock and Resource Nationalism (1970-1990)

The 1973 oil crisis impacted Western Australia differently than other developed economies. While oil import costs rose dramatically, this was offset by increased demand and prices for the nation's mineral exports. The government established the Western Australian Sovereign Wealth Fund (WASWF) in 1974, directing a portion of resource revenues into long-term investments.

The 1970s also saw the rise of resource nationalism, with the government taking more direct stakes in major projects:

The Western Australian Petroleum Corporation (WAPETCO) was established in 1975
State equity requirements were introduced for new mining ventures in 1977
The National Mining Act of 1978 strengthened indigenous land rights while creating more predictable development frameworks

Unlike Australia in our timeline, which experienced complex federal-state disputes over resource control, Western Australia's unified national government could implement coherent resource policies. This regulatory certainty, combined with generous profit-sharing arrangements with foreign investors, maintained development momentum despite global economic turbulence.

The 1980s brought challenges as commodity prices fluctuated wildly. The Western Australian economy experienced a significant recession in 1982-83, prompting economic diversification initiatives:

Investment in tourism infrastructure, marketing Western Australia's unique landscapes and isolated beaches
Development of specialized agricultural exports, particularly wine and tropical fruits
Expansion of education services, with the University of Western Australia becoming a regional hub for engineering and geoscience education

Contemporary Western Australia (1990-2025)

The end of the Cold War and the rise of Asian economies created new opportunities and challenges for Western Australia. As a small nation (population 3.2 million by 2025, compared to 2.7 million in our timeline), Western Australia has cultivated a reputation as a nimble, business-friendly economy with strategic importance exceeding its population size.

Economic Profile

Modern Western Australia maintains one of the world's highest per capita GDPs, comparable to Norway or Singapore. The economy remains resource-focused but has diversified considerably:

Mining and petroleum still constitute approximately 40% of GDP
Tourism has grown to 15% of the economy, with luxury resorts along the south coast drawing wealthy Asian visitors
Education services contribute 8%, with Western Australian universities specializing in resource engineering, marine science, and agricultural technology
Renewable energy, particularly solar and wind development, has become a major growth sector since 2010

The WASWF has grown to over $300 billion, providing significant investment capital and insulating the economy from commodity price fluctuations.

Geopolitical Position

Western Australia occupies a unique geopolitical position as a Western-aligned nation deeply integrated with Asian economies. This has created both opportunities and tensions:

Close security relationships with the United States and United Kingdom, including naval base access agreements
Deep economic ties with China, Japan, and India, with Chinese investment particularly prominent in resource sectors
Membership in both Commonwealth and ASEAN dialogue partner mechanisms

The 2010s brought increasing geopolitical challenges as US-China tensions affected the region. Western Australia has carefully maintained relationships with both powers, though this balancing act has grown more difficult as competition intensifies.

Social Development

The social development of independent Western Australia has followed a distinctive path:

Earlier and more comprehensive recognition of Aboriginal rights, with the landmark Noongar Agreement of 1997 establishing autonomous indigenous governance mechanisms two decades before similar developments in Australia
More open immigration policies, creating a more diverse population than in our timeline
Development of a distinctive cultural identity emphasizing connections to both Asia and Europe, evident in architecture, cuisine, and arts

Relationship with Australia

The relationship between Western Australia and Australia has evolved from initial hostility to respectful partnership. While occasional reunification proposals emerge (particularly during economic downturns), both nations have developed distinct identities and institutional structures that make reunification increasingly impractical.

Key aspects of the contemporary relationship include:

A unified defense planning mechanism ensuring coordinated responses to regional security challenges
Mutual citizenship recognition allowing free movement and residence rights
Harmonized educational qualifications and professional licensing
Close coordination on regional issues, though often with different perspectives and priorities

By 2025, the separation that once seemed radical has become an accepted feature of the regional landscape, with few citizens on either side actively questioning the arrangement.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Eleanor Hammond, Professor of Comparative Politics at the University of Sydney, offers this perspective: "The secession of Western Australia represents one of history's more successful political divorces. Unlike many post-colonial separations, it occurred without significant violence and has resulted in two stable, prosperous states. However, it fundamentally altered Australia's development trajectory, creating a smaller, more centralized eastern nation more focused on Asia than might otherwise have been the case. The loss of Western Australia's resource wealth forced greater economic diversification in eastern Australia, particularly in technology and services sectors. Meanwhile, Western Australia developed political institutions specifically designed to avoid the centralization that motivated secession in the first place. Perhaps most intriguingly, both nations have higher per capita GDPs in this timeline than unified Australia does in ours—suggesting that the separation may have created more optimal governance units for their respective circumstances."

Professor James Chen, Director of the Institute for Resource Economies at the National University of Singapore, provides an economic analysis: "Western Australia's independence created a natural experiment in resource governance. Free from the compromises required in a federal system, Western Australia implemented resource policies tailored specifically to its circumstances—particularly the early sovereign wealth fund and state participation requirements. These policies allowed Western Australia to avoid the worst aspects of the 'resource curse' while maintaining investment attractiveness. The results speak for themselves: more stable economic growth, better infrastructure development, and more equitable distribution of resource benefits than we typically see in resource-dominated economies. However, the price has been greater economic concentration and vulnerability to external demand fluctuations. Western Australia's current challenges with economic diversification mirror those of other resource-rich small states like Qatar or Brunei, suggesting that there are structural limits to diversification that even optimal governance cannot overcome."

Dr. Ngaire Matsuoka, Research Fellow at the Western Australian Institute of International Affairs, comments on the geopolitical implications: "Western Australia's secession fundamentally altered the strategic landscape of the Indian Ocean region. As an independent actor, Western Australia developed a foreign policy distinctly more engaged with Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean littoral than Australia proper. This created a different regional security architecture, with Western Australia serving as an important bridge between traditional Western security structures and emerging Asian frameworks. During the Cold War, this occasionally created tensions, particularly when Western Australia maintained trade relationships with countries Australia viewed with suspicion. Today, as great power competition intensifies in the Indo-Pacific, Western Australia's dual identity as both a Western nation and an Asian economic partner gives it unique diplomatic leverage—but also places it directly in the crosscurrents of US-China strategic competition. How Western Australia navigates these waters will significantly impact regional stability in the coming decades."