What If Western Sahara's Status Was Resolved Differently?

The Actual History

Western Sahara, a territory of approximately 266,000 square kilometers bordering Morocco, Algeria, and Mauritania, stands as one of the world's longest-running and most intractable territorial disputes. The origins of the conflict date back to the colonial era when Spain established control over the region, then known as Spanish Sahara, in 1884. For nearly a century, Spain maintained this territory as a colonial possession while showing little interest in development or investment.

The story of Western Sahara's incomplete decolonization began in earnest during the 1960s, when global pressure for decolonization mounted. In 1963, the United Nations added Spanish Sahara to its list of Non-Self-Governing Territories, and in 1966, the UN General Assembly adopted its first resolution calling for Spain to organize a referendum on self-determination for the Sahrawi people. However, competing claims complicated the situation: Morocco, which had gained independence from France in 1956, asserted historical rights over the territory, while Mauritania also made territorial claims.

In 1973, the indigenous Sahrawi resistance coalesced into the Polisario Front (Popular Front for the Liberation of Saguia el-Hamra and Río de Oro), which launched an armed struggle against Spanish colonial rule. As Spain faced mounting pressure, both internationally and from the Polisario Front's guerrilla campaign, dictator Francisco Franco's declining health further complicated Spanish policy.

The pivotal year came in 1975. In May, a United Nations visiting mission to the territory recommended self-determination for the Sahrawi people. However, in October, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) delivered a nuanced advisory opinion that rejected Morocco and Mauritania's sovereignty claims based on historical ties, affirming instead that the Sahrawi people should exercise their right to self-determination. King Hassan II of Morocco immediately interpreted this ruling selectively, focusing on the court's recognition of certain historical ties while ignoring its conclusions on self-determination.

On November 6, 1975, Morocco launched the "Green March," sending approximately 350,000 Moroccan civilians across the border into Western Sahara. This aggressive move coincided with Franco's final illness. Under pressure, Spain signed the Madrid Accords on November 14, 1975, agreeing to withdraw from the territory and transfer administrative control to Morocco and Mauritania, without consulting the Sahrawi population.

As Spain withdrew in February 1976, Morocco occupied the northern two-thirds of Western Sahara while Mauritania took the southern third. The Polisario Front proclaimed the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) and began a guerrilla war against both occupying powers. By 1979, Mauritania withdrew and renounced its claims following military defeats, leaving Morocco to extend its control over the entire territory.

The conflict intensified through the 1980s, with Morocco building a series of defensive walls (known as "the Berm") to secure its control over most of the territory. By the late 1980s, the military situation had reached a stalemate. In 1991, the United Nations brokered a ceasefire agreement that included plans for a referendum on independence, to be organized by the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).

However, the promised referendum never materialized. Disputes over voter eligibility and Morocco's insistence on including Moroccan settlers in the voter rolls created insurmountable obstacles. Morocco has consistently promoted autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty as its final offer, while the Polisario Front has insisted on a referendum that includes independence as an option.

Despite numerous UN envoys and negotiation attempts, the situation remained locked in a diplomatic and political stalemate through the 2000s and 2010s. The SADR gained recognition from approximately 80 countries at its peak (though many have since withdrawn recognition) and was admitted to the Organization of African Unity (predecessor to the African Union) in 1984, prompting Morocco's withdrawal from the organization until 2017.

The fragile ceasefire collapsed in November 2020 when Moroccan forces entered the Guerguerat buffer zone to remove Polisario protesters blocking a key road. The Polisario declared the ceasefire void and resumed armed resistance, albeit at a low intensity. Meanwhile, in December 2020, the United States under President Trump recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara in exchange for Morocco normalizing relations with Israel, adding a new dimension to the conflict.

As of 2025, Western Sahara remains divided between Moroccan-controlled territory (approximately 80% of the land, including all major cities and resources) and a smaller eastern portion controlled by the Polisario Front. The territory has effectively become one of the world's frozen conflicts, with no resolution in sight and the Sahrawi people caught between occupation and exile.

The Point of Divergence

What if the Western Sahara conflict had found a definitive resolution in the critical period between 1990 and 1992? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where the United Nations-brokered Settlement Plan not only established a ceasefire but successfully implemented a referendum that determined the territory's final status.

The point of divergence centers on the crucial period following the 1991 ceasefire agreement between Morocco and the Polisario Front. In our timeline, the identification process for referendum voters became hopelessly mired in technical disputes, particularly Morocco's insistence on including tens of thousands of settlers on the voter rolls, effectively sabotaging the referendum process.

In this alternate timeline, several plausible factors converge to produce a different outcome:

First, more decisive international pressure could have forced compromise on the voter identification process. The end of the Cold War created a brief window of unprecedented UN effectiveness and international cooperation. In this scenario, the United States and France—Morocco's traditional allies—might have calculated that a definitive resolution served their longer-term interests in regional stability, applying significant pressure on Morocco to accept a more limited voter roll based primarily on the 1974 Spanish census.

Second, internal Moroccan politics could have taken a different turn. King Hassan II, who ruled Morocco from 1961 until his death in 1999, might have reassessed the costs of the conflict differently. Having survived coup attempts in the 1970s, Hassan may have calculated that resolving the Western Sahara issue would secure his legacy and Morocco's international standing. Perhaps facing greater economic challenges or internal dissent, he might have accepted a compromise solution that offered Morocco significant economic concessions and guarantees while allowing for a genuinely free referendum.

Third, the negotiation framework itself could have been structured differently. UN Special Representative Johannes Manz resigned in December 1991, frustrated by what he saw as Moroccan obstruction. In this alternate timeline, Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali appoints a more effective replacement who crafts a voter identification process that both sides can accept, perhaps using innovative verification mechanisms or international guarantees that address Moroccan security concerns while preserving referendum integrity.

Fourth, regional dynamics might have shifted differently. Algeria, the Polisario's primary backer, experienced severe internal turmoil beginning in 1991 with the rise of the Islamic Salvation Front and subsequent civil conflict. In our alternate timeline, Algeria maintains greater stability and leverages its diplomatic weight more effectively, while perhaps offering Morocco bilateral incentives to accept a referendum solution.

The key moment of divergence occurs in early 1992, when the UN Security Council, capitalizing on its post-Cold War unity, passes a stronger resolution that establishes an irrevocable timeline for voter identification and referendum implementation, backed by explicit consequences for non-compliance. This resolution includes security guarantees, economic incentives, and a post-referendum reconciliation framework that makes the outcome acceptable to all parties.

Rather than an endless technical stalemate, this alternate timeline sees the referendum process move forward decisively through 1992-1993, culminating in a territory-wide vote that finally resolves Western Sahara's status and creates a new political reality in Northwest Africa.

Immediate Aftermath

The Referendum and Its Results

In this alternate timeline, the United Nations successfully completed the voter identification process by late 1992, overcoming Moroccan objections through a combination of diplomatic pressure and incentives. The final voter roll included approximately 80,000 eligible Sahrawis, based primarily on the 1974 Spanish census with limited additional qualifications.

The referendum itself was held in March 1993 under heavy UN supervision, with observers from the Organization of African Unity, European Community, and Arab League ensuring transparency. The ballot offered two options: integration with Morocco or independence as the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic.

After decades of occupation and conflict, the results showed a clear majority—74% of voters—choosing independence. The outcome reflected the strong Sahrawi national identity that had developed during the struggle, particularly among those who had endured years in refugee camps. Despite Moroccan efforts to influence the vote through incentives to settlers and propaganda, the margin proved decisive enough to be internationally credible.

The UN Security Council formally certified the results in April 1993, setting in motion a transitional period toward full Sahrawi independence. However, the path forward remained complex and fraught with challenges.

Moroccan Response and International Negotiations

Morocco's initial reaction combined public outrage with private pragmatism. King Hassan II delivered a televised address expressing "profound disappointment" but notably avoided rejecting the results outright. Behind the scenes, Moroccan diplomats engaged in intensive negotiations for favorable terms of withdrawal.

These negotiations produced the "Marrakech Protocols" in late 1993, which established:

A phased three-year Moroccan withdrawal from the territory
Substantial economic rights for Morocco, including preferential access to phosphate resources and fishing waters
Security guarantees, including a demilitarized zone along the border and limitations on the future Sahrawi military
Compensation for Moroccan infrastructure investments
Protection for Moroccan settlers who wished to remain, and repatriation assistance for those choosing to return to Morocco

The protocols represented a face-saving compromise that allowed King Hassan II to present the outcome as a "dignified resolution" rather than a defeat. Morocco's acceptance was secured through significant economic incentives and security guarantees, along with discreet pressure from the United States and France, who offered enhanced bilateral cooperation and development aid.

Formation of the Transitional Sahrawi State

The Polisario Front, having achieved its primary goal of self-determination, transformed itself from a liberation movement into a governing entity. The transitional government faced immediate challenges:

Repatriation Crisis: The return of approximately 165,000 Sahrawi refugees from Algeria created enormous logistical challenges. UN agencies established a massive repatriation operation, building temporary housing and providing food assistance during the transition.
Economic Foundations: The new state negotiated extraction agreements for its phosphate reserves with foreign companies, established fishing license frameworks, and received development assistance from Algeria, Spain, and international organizations.
Security Establishment: The Polisario's guerrilla forces were gradually transformed into a national defense force under UN supervision, while police and border security units were trained with international assistance.
Constitutional Process: A constituent assembly drafted a new constitution combining traditional Sahrawi governance practices with modern democratic elements, culminating in ratification through a national referendum in 1995.

Regional Realignment

The resolution triggered a broader regional realignment:

Algerian-Moroccan Relations: Initial tensions gradually eased as both countries recognized the economic advantages of normalized relations. The long-closed border between Algeria and Morocco reopened in late 1994 after preliminary agreements on security cooperation and trade.
Moroccan Internal Politics: King Hassan II weathered initial criticism from nationalist elements within Morocco by emphasizing the economic benefits of resolution and redirecting national focus toward domestic development and Mediterranean cooperation.
Mauritanian Engagement: Mauritania quickly established full diplomatic relations with the new Sahrawi state, seeing opportunities for regional trade and transit.
European Involvement: The European Community (soon to become the European Union) established a special relationship with Western Sahara, offering association status and development aid while securing fishing rights and migration cooperation.

United Nations Success Story

For the United Nations, Western Sahara became a rare post-Cold War success story. Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali highlighted the peaceful resolution as evidence of the UN's renewed effectiveness. The implementation of the Settlement Plan established a model for future decolonization and self-determination processes:

Clearly defined voter identification criteria
Robust international monitoring
Comprehensive post-referendum arrangements
Incentives for all parties
Regional security frameworks

By 1996, as the transition period approached completion, Western Sahara had transformed from one of the world's most intractable conflicts into a template for peaceful resolution of territorial disputes. The process demonstrated that with sufficient international will and creative diplomacy, even deeply entrenched conflicts could find paths to resolution.

Long-term Impact

Political Evolution in the Sahrawi Republic (1996-2010)

The transition to full independence culminated in May 1996 with the formal establishment of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic as a sovereign state. The new nation faced immediate governance challenges that would define its first decade:

Democratic Development with Traditional Elements

The Sahrawi political system evolved into a distinctive hybrid model combining democratic institutions with traditional consultative practices. While the Polisario Front initially dominated government, its monopoly gradually eroded:

Constitutional Reform (1999): Following internal and international pressure, the constitution was amended to strengthen separation of powers and establish an independent judiciary.
Electoral Evolution: The 2001 parliamentary elections saw the emergence of factions within the Polisario umbrella, and by the 2005 elections, independent candidates and new political movements gained significant representation.
Tribal Integration: Traditional tribal councils were formally incorporated into local governance structures, creating a distinctive multi-level democratic system that balanced modern institutions with Sahrawi cultural practices.

Economic Development Path

Western Sahara's economy developed along several distinct tracks:

Resource Management: Phosphate mining at Bou Craa became the backbone of the economy, with the Sahrawi government establishing the Saharan Phosphate Corporation (SAPCORP) as a public-private partnership with European and Canadian investors. Unlike many resource-rich developing nations, Western Sahara implemented strong transparency measures and a sovereign wealth fund modeled on Norway's oil fund.
Fisheries Development: The rich Atlantic waters became a second economic pillar, with a domestic fishing fleet developed through international partnerships, particularly with Spain and Japan.
Renewable Energy: By 2008, Western Sahara began leveraging its abundant sunshine and Atlantic winds, establishing Africa's first major solar export industry. The "Saharan Solar Initiative" attracted massive international investment, with power transmission lines to both Europe and West Africa.
Tourism Emergence: The unique cultural heritage and unspoiled Atlantic coast attracted niche tourism, particularly in adventure and cultural sectors.

Social Reconstruction Challenges

The reintegration of Sahrawi society presented complex challenges:

Educational Disparities: Returning refugees educated in Algerian and Cuban systems had to be integrated with those educated under Moroccan curriculum, creating challenging disparities that required comprehensive educational reform.
Language Policy: The government established a trilingual policy (Arabic, Spanish, and Hassaniya) that reflected the territory's unique history while facilitating international engagement.
Women's Prominent Role: Unlike many Arab-Islamic societies, Sahrawi women maintained significant political and economic influence, reinforced by their prominent role during the liberation struggle and refugee period. By 2010, women held 43% of parliamentary seats and headed key ministries.

Regional Integration and the North African Community (2000-2015)

The resolution of the Western Sahara conflict removed the primary obstacle to regional integration in Northwest Africa. This opened possibilities that fundamentally reshaped regional dynamics:

The Maghreb Union Revitalization

The dormant Arab Maghreb Union, established in 1989 but quickly paralyzed by the Western Sahara dispute, experienced a dramatic revitalization:

Comprehensive Regional Framework (2003): Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Mauritania, Libya, and Western Sahara negotiated the Tripoli Accord, establishing free movement of people and capital, along with harmonized external tariffs.
Infrastructure Integration: Between 2005-2015, the Trans-Maghreb Highway was completed, connecting Nouakchott to Cairo, while energy interconnection projects linked North African electricity and gas networks.
Security Cooperation: The resolution eliminated a major source of regional tension, enabling unprecedented cooperation against emerging terrorist threats in the Sahel, with joint operations centers established in 2007.

European-Maghreb Relations

The Western Sahara resolution significantly altered Europe's relationship with North Africa:

Barcelona Process Acceleration: The Euro-Mediterranean Partnership gained substance with reduced regional tensions, leading to the comprehensive Euro-Maghreb Association Agreement of 2006.
Migration Management: A coordinated regional approach to migration emerged, with Western Sahara playing a key role in developing legal migration channels while participating in Mediterranean maritime security.
Energy Partnership: By 2012, North African renewable energy (including major Western Saharan solar projects) began supplying European grids through underwater Mediterranean connections, creating economic interdependence.

Morocco's Alternative Development Path

Perhaps the most profound long-term impact was on Morocco itself, which followed a significantly different trajectory without the financial and political burden of the Western Sahara conflict:

Political Liberalization

Without the nationalist rallying point of Western Sahara, Morocco's political system evolved more rapidly toward constitutional monarchy:

2002 Constitutional Reforms: King Mohammed VI, who succeeded his father Hassan II in 1999, implemented more substantial democratic reforms than in our timeline, establishing stronger parliamentary powers and judicial independence.
Regional Autonomy Model: The successful Western Sahara resolution inspired Morocco to implement genuine regional autonomy within its internationally recognized borders, addressing Berber aspirations in the Rif and Atlas regions.

Economic Reorientation

Morocco's economy, freed from military expenditures and international isolation over Western Sahara, developed along different lines:

Mediterranean Focus: Without the diversion of resources to Western Sahara, Morocco accelerated its economic integration with Europe, becoming a manufacturing hub for European companies and developing advanced agricultural exports.
Infrastructure Prioritization: Resources previously devoted to the occupation funded domestic transportation networks, education, and technological development, accelerating Morocco's emergence as a middle-income economy.
Diplomatic Commercial Leverage: Morocco's acceptance of the referendum results, though initially controversial domestically, earned substantial diplomatic capital that translated into preferential trade agreements with the EU and United States.

Global Implications for Self-Determination Conflicts (1996-2025)

The successful Western Sahara resolution established influential precedents for other territorial disputes:

The "Western Sahara Model"

UN diplomats developed what became known as the "Western Sahara Model" for resolving self-determination conflicts, characterized by:

Clearly defined voter eligibility criteria
Robust international monitoring
Post-referendum economic and security arrangements
Regional involvement in implementation
Guaranteed minority rights

This framework influenced approaches to conflicts in:

East Timor (1999): The East Timor independence process explicitly referenced Western Sahara as a model, particularly regarding referendum design and implementation.
South Sudan (2011): Elements of the transitional security arrangements and resource sharing were adapted from the Western Sahara precedent.
New Caledonia: France incorporated aspects of the voter eligibility framework in managing New Caledonia's independence referendums.

International Legal Development

The Western Sahara resolution strengthened the legal principle of self-determination while establishing important precedents for managing its implementation:

ICJ Jurisprudence: Subsequent International Court of Justice advisory opinions cited the Western Sahara case as establishing that historical ties do not override the fundamental right to self-determination.
Resource Rights Framework: The agreements on phosphate and fishing rights evolved into a template for equitable resource arrangements during transitions from occupation to independence.

Present Day Status (2025)

By 2025, Western Sahara has emerged as a stable, middle-income country with a population of approximately 850,000. Its unique political system combines democratic institutions with traditional consultative practices. The economy centers on phosphate exports, fisheries, renewable energy, and growing service sectors.

The country maintains particularly close relations with Spain, Algeria, and Mauritania while serving as a bridge between North and West Africa. Its membership in both the Arab League and African Union positions it as an interregional mediator.

The resolution's most profound legacy has been regional: the integrated Maghreb economic zone has grown to rival the Gulf Cooperation Council in strategic importance, while Mediterranean security cooperation has significantly reduced irregular migration. Morocco, freed from the financial and diplomatic burdens of occupation, has experienced accelerated democratic development and economic growth, becoming a regional leader in manufacturing and technology.

What began as a seemingly intractable post-colonial conflict has transformed into a template for peaceful resolution through international cooperation, demonstrating that even the most persistent territorial disputes can find equitable and lasting solutions when the international community applies consistent diplomatic pressure backed by creative incentives.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Fatima El-Mansouri, Professor of International Relations at Mohammed V University in Rabat, offers this perspective: "The Western Sahara resolution represents the road not taken in our actual history. Had Morocco accepted the referendum results in the early 1990s, it would have avoided decades of diplomatic isolation and military expenditure. The 'dignified compromise' framework established in this alternate timeline would have allowed Morocco to redirect its national energies toward domestic development and European integration much earlier. While nationalist sentiments initially opposed the resolution, our analysis suggests that Morocco's economic and political development would have accelerated significantly without the Western Sahara burden. The irony is that Morocco would likely have emerged stronger and more prosperous by accepting a controlled withdrawal than by maintaining an expensive occupation."

Professor Hugh Roberts, Director of North African Studies at the London School of Economics, provides this analysis: "What makes the Western Sahara alternate timeline particularly plausible is that the 1991-1992 period represented a genuine historical window of opportunity. The end of the Cold War, Algeria's internal focus on its own domestic crisis, and King Hassan II's political calculations could have aligned differently with slightly altered international pressure. The counterfactual resolution demonstrates how regional integration in the Maghreb—entirely blocked in our timeline—could have transformed North Africa's relationship with Europe and its internal development. Perhaps most significantly, the jihadist movements that later exploited regional divisions and ungoverned spaces would have faced a more united regional response, potentially altering the security landscape across the Sahel."

Dr. Amina Boukhars, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, concludes: "This alternate timeline illuminates what has been lost through the persistence of the Western Sahara conflict—not just for the Sahrawi people who remain divided between occupation and exile, but for the entire region. The opportunity cost of continued conflict has been enormous: blocked regional integration, military expenditures, diplomatic tensions, and human suffering. What's particularly instructive is how the resolution framework in this scenario addresses the legitimate concerns of all parties through creative diplomacy. The economic integration, security cooperation, and political development paths demonstrated in this alternate history provide a blueprint that remains relevant today. Rather than seeing Western Sahara as an intractable conflict, we should recognize it as a resolvable dispute awaiting sufficient international will and creative compromise."