What If Zagreb Implemented Different Tourism Strategies?

The Actual History

Zagreb, Croatia's capital, has had a tourism trajectory distinctly different from the country's coastal regions. While Croatia's Adriatic destinations like Dubrovnik, Split, and Hvar have exploded in popularity since the early 2000s—becoming some of Europe's fastest-growing tourism hotspots—Zagreb has traditionally played a secondary role in the country's tourism ecosystem.

Following Croatia's independence from Yugoslavia in 1991 and the subsequent war that lasted until 1995, Zagreb faced significant challenges in establishing itself as a tourist destination. The 1990s were marked by post-war recovery and economic transition, with tourism development primarily focused on revitalizing the lucrative coastal areas. Zagreb, with its continental climate and lack of beaches, was not prioritized in early national tourism strategies.

The early 2000s saw Croatia's coastal tourism boom, partly driven by the popularity of Dubrovnik as a filming location for "Game of Thrones" and other productions. During this period, Zagreb primarily served as a transit hub—a gateway city that tourists passed through on their way to the coast. The city received minimal investment in tourism infrastructure compared to Dalmatian destinations, and international marketing efforts rarely featured the capital prominently.

A noticeable shift began around 2010 when Zagreb started to develop its Advent Christmas Market. This seasonal initiative grew rapidly, winning the title of "Best Christmas Market in Europe" for three consecutive years (2016-2018) in online polls. This success represented Zagreb's first major tourism breakthrough, though it remained highly seasonal.

From 2015 onwards, Zagreb experienced steady growth in visitor numbers, with annual increases of approximately 10% until the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This growth was primarily driven by:

Increased low-cost airline connections to Western European cities
The success of the Advent Christmas Market
Croatia's growing popularity as a destination overall
Gradual development of museums and cultural attractions (Museum of Broken Relationships, Museum of Illusions)

Despite these improvements, Zagreb's tourism development has remained modest compared to the transformative growth seen along Croatia's coast. As of 2024, the city receives around 1.5 million tourists annually—a respectable figure but far below comparable Central European capitals like Prague (8 million) or Budapest (4 million). Tourism contributed approximately 4-5% to Zagreb's economy, compared to over 20% in some coastal regions of Croatia.

The city's tourism strategy has largely focused on positioning Zagreb as a short-break destination, a stop on multi-destination European itineraries, and developing niche markets like business events and medical tourism. However, challenges have persisted, including:

Limited international brand recognition compared to other European capitals
Highly seasonal visitation patterns concentrated around summer and Advent
Insufficient development of year-round attractions
Underdeveloped river tourism along the Sava River
Limited integration of the surrounding region into tourism offerings

By 2025, Zagreb had secured a place as an emerging European city destination but had not achieved the transformative tourism development that some experts believed was possible given its architectural heritage, geographic position, and cultural assets.

The Point of Divergence

What if Zagreb had implemented fundamentally different tourism strategies in the post-independence period? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where Croatia's capital city made tourism development a central priority from the late 1990s onwards, implementing a comprehensive long-term vision that would position it as a major European urban destination parallel to Prague or Vienna.

The divergence could have occurred in several plausible ways:

First, Zagreb's city government might have recognized the economic potential of urban tourism earlier, perhaps following the example of Prague's explosive growth in the 1990s. In this scenario, rather than focusing almost exclusively on coastal tourism recovery after the war, the Croatian government allocates significant funds for urban tourism development in Zagreb starting around 1998-2000. This decision might have been influenced by tourism development consultants pointing to the untapped potential of the city's Austro-Hungarian architecture, cafe culture, and strategic position as a gateway to Southeastern Europe.

Alternatively, the divergence could have resulted from different leadership at the Croatian National Tourist Board. Perhaps a visionary director with experience in urban destination development was appointed in the early 2000s, someone who recognized that Croatia's tourism brand needed to extend beyond "sun and sea" and who advocated for a dual-approach that developed Zagreb in parallel with the coast.

A third possibility centers on international investment. In this alternate timeline, several major international hotel chains might have identified Zagreb as an overlooked opportunity and commenced significant investment around 2002-2005, catalyzing broader tourism infrastructure development and international marketing.

The most comprehensive scenario combines elements of all three: a strategic shift at both the national and city level around 2000, informed by international tourism experts, supported by significant public investment, and accelerated by private sector confidence. This altered approach would have preceded Croatia's EU accession preparations, allowing tourism development to benefit from pre-accession funds and positioning Zagreb to capitalize on EU membership when it arrived in 2013.

Key to this divergence would be the development of a master tourism plan specifically for Zagreb around 2000-2002, one that envisioned the city not just as a gateway or transit point, but as a premier urban destination in its own right—with ambitious goals to triple tourism numbers by 2010 and position Zagreb among the top 15 European urban destinations by 2020.

Immediate Aftermath

Infrastructure Development Acceleration (2000-2005)

In this alternate timeline, Zagreb's tourism transformation begins with a focused infrastructure development program that fundamentally changes the city's capacity to welcome visitors:

Hotel Development Boom: Rather than the gradual and limited hotel development that occurred in our timeline, the alternate Zagreb experiences a construction boom specifically in the hospitality sector. By 2005, the city adds over 5,000 new hotel rooms across all categories, with particular emphasis on boutique hotels in the historic Upper Town and larger international brand properties near the main square and business district. This represents a 300% increase compared to our timeline's development.
Transportation Hub Enhancement: Zagreb Airport receives its expansion and modernization nearly a decade earlier than in our timeline, with a new terminal opening in 2006 instead of 2017. The city secures agreements with multiple low-cost carriers to establish Zagreb as a regional air hub, resulting in direct connections to over 50 European cities by 2007.
Urban Renewal Projects: The historic Upper Town (Gornji Grad) undergoes a comprehensive but sensitive restoration program modeled after successful projects in Prague and Krakow. This includes facade restoration, creative lighting implementation, and the pedestrianization of key historic streets, making the area significantly more attractive for visitors while preserving its architectural integrity.
Sava River Development: Unlike in our timeline where the Sava River remains largely disconnected from city life, this alternate Zagreb implements an ambitious riverfront development project inspired by successful European examples like Vienna's Danube area. By 2005, the first phase delivers promenades, cycling paths, floating restaurants, and small cruise operations that integrate the river into the visitor experience.

Marketing and Positioning Revolution (2003-2007)

With enhanced infrastructure in place, the alternate Zagreb launches a comprehensive rebranding campaign:

Distinctive Brand Identity: Zagreb develops a distinctive positioning as "Europe's New Creative Capital," emphasizing its artistic heritage, cafe culture, literary traditions, and emerging design scene. This positions the city as more than just another pretty European capital but as a center of contemporary culture with historic roots.
Year-Round Events Calendar: Rather than focusing primarily on Advent, the city creates a calendar of headline events spread throughout the year: a major international film festival in spring, a summer music festival utilizing historic courtyards, a fall literary festival building on Croatia's strong literary traditions, and an expanded winter festival beyond just the Christmas market.
Creative Tourism Incubator: The city establishes Europe's first dedicated creative tourism development center, providing resources, training, and funding for innovative tourism experiences that go beyond traditional sightseeing. By 2007, this incubator helps launch over 100 new visitor experiences connecting tourists with local creatives, crafters, chefs, and artisans.
Film Industry Engagement: Zagreb proactively courts international film productions years before "Game of Thrones" put Croatia on the map. By 2006, several significant European productions choose Zagreb as a filming location, providing both immediate economic impact and long-term tourism marketing assets.

Economic and Social Transformations (2004-2008)

The accelerated tourism development creates significant ripple effects throughout Zagreb's economy:

Employment Boom: The tourism sector creates over 15,000 new direct jobs between 2002-2008, with particular impact on youth employment. This helps reduce the brain drain of young educated Croatians to Western Europe, retaining talent that further enhances the city's cultural and creative offerings.
Entrepreneurial Ecosystem: Tourism growth catalyzes a wave of entrepreneurship focused on visitor experiences. The number of tourism-adjacent businesses—tour operators, experience providers, transportation services, and restaurants—quadruples between 2000-2008, creating a more diverse economic base.
Educational Shift: Zagreb University responds to the growing sector by developing specialized programs in tourism management, experience design, and creative industries. By 2007, these programs are attracting international students, further diversifying the city.
Property Market Pressures: The rapid tourism growth creates early signs of the challenges seen in other popular destinations. By 2008, property prices in the historic center rise by 40% compared to our timeline, creating concerns about residential displacement that require policy responses.

Political and Regulatory Responses (2005-2009)

The city government adapts to manage the accelerated growth:

Tourism Governance Model: Zagreb establishes a public-private partnership for tourism management in 2005, creating a professional destination management organization with significant private sector involvement—a model that wouldn't emerge in our timeline until much later and in more limited form.
Sustainable Tourism Framework: Learning from the challenges facing earlier tourism boom cities like Prague and Barcelona, Zagreb implements a tourism sustainability framework in 2007 that establishes carrying capacity limits for key attractions, visitor dispersal strategies, and environmental standards for tourism businesses.
Residents' Benefits Program: To maintain local support for tourism growth, the city introduces a "Zagreb Residents Card" in 2008 that provides locals with dedicated access times to attractions, discounts, and benefits that ensure they continue to enjoy their city despite growing visitor numbers.

By late 2008, as the global financial crisis impacts travel worldwide, Zagreb in this alternate timeline has already established itself as an emerging European urban destination with approximately 3 million annual visitors—double what it would achieve by 2024 in our actual timeline. The foundations laid during these years position the city to weather the economic downturn better than many competing destinations.

Long-term Impact

Zagreb's Position in European Tourism (2010-2025)

By the 2010s, the alternate Zagreb has fundamentally transformed its standing among European destinations:

Visitor Economy Scale: By 2015, Zagreb welcomes over 5 million visitors annually—comparable to Vienna and significantly higher than the actual 1 million it received that year in our timeline. By 2025, this number reaches 7.5 million, placing Zagreb firmly among Europe's top 15 urban destinations by volume.
Visitor Profile Transformation: Unlike our timeline where Zagreb primarily attracts regional visitors and transit tourists, the alternate Zagreb develops a diverse visitor base with significant markets from Western Europe, Asia (particularly China and South Korea), and North America. The average stay length increases from 1.8 nights in our timeline to 3.2 nights, reflecting Zagreb's evolution from transit point to destination.
Economic Contribution: Tourism directly contributes 12% to Zagreb's GDP by 2025 (compared to 4-5% in our timeline), with indirect contributions pushing the total impact to approximately 20%. The sector employs over 50,000 people directly and has helped reduce unemployment rates to below the EU average.
International Recognition: The city regularly appears on "best of" travel lists, wins international tourism awards, and hosts major tourism industry conferences. By 2020, Zagreb has established itself alongside Prague, Budapest, and Vienna as part of Central Europe's premier urban tourism quartet, rather than remaining in their shadow.

Urban Development Patterns (2010-2025)

The tourism-centric development strategy profoundly impacts the city's physical and social geography:

Physical Transformation

Historic Core Preservation and Evolution: Unlike our timeline where parts of Zagreb's historic areas remained somewhat neglected, the alternate timeline sees comprehensive restoration of the Upper and Lower Town architectural heritage. However, this creates a dual reality where the historic core becomes increasingly tourism-oriented while maintaining architectural authenticity.
New Cultural Districts: Former industrial areas like Gredelj (the old railway workshop) are transformed into cultural quarters years earlier than in our timeline. By 2015, these areas feature adaptive reuse projects housing museums, creative industries, entertainment venues, and gastronomic experiences, creating distinctive precincts that expand the tourism footprint beyond the historic center.
Transportation Network Evolution: To support visitor dispersal and manage concentration, Zagreb develops an expanded tram network, a bike-sharing system reaching 5,000 bicycles by 2020, and an electric shuttle system connecting major attractions—all more extensively than in our actual timeline.
Accommodation Landscape: By 2020, the city's accommodation capacity reaches 50,000 beds across hotels, hostels, and private rentals (compared to about 18,000 in our timeline). The private accommodation sector undergoes regulation earlier than in our timeline, with licensing and quality standards implemented by 2015.

Social and Economic Patterns

Property Market Dynamics: The intensive tourism focus creates significant pressure on the housing market, particularly in central districts. By 2020, property prices in central Zagreb are 60-70% higher than in our timeline, creating affordability challenges for residents. This necessitates housing policy interventions, including affordable housing quotas for new developments and rent control measures in certain districts.
Socioeconomic Stratification: Tourism growth creates a more polarized employment market than in our timeline—high-end hospitality and creative tourism jobs at the top, and a larger service sector with lower wages at the bottom. However, stronger labor regulations and union presence in the alternate Zagreb's tourism sector ensures better conditions than in many other tourism-dependent cities.
Cultural Production Shifts: The emphasis on tourism leads local cultural institutions to increasingly cater to visitor expectations, raising concerns about authenticity. However, the alternate Zagreb also experiences a creative renaissance, with tourism revenue supporting experimental art, independent cultural venues, and a dynamic festival scene that benefits both visitors and locals.

Regional Tourism Dynamics (2015-2025)

Zagreb's altered tourism trajectory reshapes Croatian and regional tourism patterns:

Balanced National Tourism: The tourism boom in Zagreb creates a more balanced national tourism economy. By 2020, continental Croatia captures 35% of the country's tourism revenue (compared to less than 15% in our timeline), reducing the extreme coastal concentration and associated seasonality problems.
Regional Dispersal: Zagreb functions as a hub for regional tourism dispersal, with 40% of visitors incorporating day trips to surrounding attractions like Samobor, Varaždin, Plitvice Lakes, and the Zagorje region. This creates a tourism corridor effect that benefits these smaller destinations far more than in our timeline.
Competitor Response: Other regional capitals like Belgrade, Ljubljana, and Sarajevo accelerate their own tourism development strategies in response to Zagreb's success, creating a more competitive but collectively stronger regional tourism ecosystem across the former Yugoslavia.
Functional Tourism Integration: By 2025, the alternate Zagreb establishes functional tourism cooperation with nearby destinations, including joint marketing initiatives, integrated visitor passes, and coordinated event calendars with Ljubljana, Graz, and Budapest—creating a Central European tourism region rather than competing as isolated destinations.

Challenges and Adaptations (2018-2025)

The alternate Zagreb's tourism success creates challenges requiring innovative responses:

Overtourism Mitigation: By 2018, certain areas like the Upper Town and main square experience overtourism symptoms during peak periods. The city responds with visitor flow management systems, timed entry tickets for major attractions, and dynamic pricing that encourages off-peak visitation.
Digital Transformation: Zagreb becomes a pioneer in smart tourism management, implementing a citywide destination management system by 2020 that uses real-time data to monitor visitor flows, predict congestion, and provide personalized recommendations that help disperse visitors.
Sustainability Imperative: The environmental footprint of accelerated tourism development necessitates ambitious sustainability initiatives. By 2022, Zagreb implements a certification program requiring tourism businesses to meet progressively stricter environmental standards, creates car-free zones in the city center, and mandates renewable energy use for new tourism facilities.
Pandemic Response and Recovery: The COVID-19 pandemic of 2020-2022 impacts Zagreb severely due to its tourism dependency. However, the alternate Zagreb's more diversified visitor base (less reliant on any single market) and robust destination management organization enables a faster recovery than many competing cities. By 2023, visitor numbers return to 90% of pre-pandemic levels, with domestic and regional markets leading the recovery.

By 2025, the alternate Zagreb has established itself as one of Europe's tourism success stories—a capital that transformed from overlooked transit point to vibrant destination. However, this success comes with complex trade-offs between economic benefits and challenges related to authenticity, housing affordability, and carrying capacity that continue to require active management and community engagement.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Marina Kovačević, Professor of Tourism Economics at the University of Zagreb, offers this perspective: "The actual development path Zagreb chose represented a missed opportunity of historic proportions. Our research indicates that with the appropriate investment and strategic focus between 2000-2010, Zagreb could have captured a significantly larger share of the Central European urban tourism market. The city possessed comparable architectural heritage to Prague or Budapest but lacked the coordinated vision and investment to activate these assets effectively. The gradual, somewhat passive approach to tourism development has resulted in a visitor economy that generates perhaps one-third of its potential economic impact. What's particularly unfortunate is that a more robust urban tourism sector could have provided an important counterbalance to coastal overtourism and seasonal employment patterns that now challenge Croatia's tourism sustainability."

James Wilson, Former Director of European Destination Development at the UN World Tourism Organization, provides a contrasting view: "Zagreb's more measured tourism growth may ultimately prove advantageous. Cities that experienced rapid tourism development in the early 2000s—Barcelona, Prague, Amsterdam—now face significant overtourism challenges and resident backlash. Zagreb's slower trajectory has allowed it to learn from others' mistakes. The city still maintains an authenticity and livability that mass tourism can compromise. While there were certainly missed economic opportunities, particularly in the 2000-2010 period when infrastructure and product development lagged, the city has preserved options that destinations with explosive growth no longer have. The question now is whether Zagreb can find the sweet spot—accelerating tourism development while implementing the lessons of sustainable destination management from the beginning, rather than as an afterthought."

Dr. Ana Perić-Schmidt, Urban Planning Historian specializing in post-Yugoslav urban development, contextualizes the situation: "Zagreb's tourism development cannot be separated from its post-war and post-Yugoslav context. Unlike Prague or Budapest, which could focus singularly on tourism development after 1989, Zagreb was part of a new nation navigating independence, war recovery, and identity formation. Tourism development took a backseat to more fundamental challenges. The focus on coastal tourism recovery was logical given its immediate revenue-generating potential needed for reconstruction. However, the persistence of this coast-centric model long after the immediate post-war period reflects institutional inertia and path dependency rather than strategic decision-making. An alternate path centered on positioning Zagreb as the cultural capital of the Western Balkans was entirely feasible by the early 2000s and would have created a more balanced national tourism economy while accelerating Croatia's reintegration into European cultural and economic systems."